I'm outta here for about 10 days or so, and I'm not sure if I'll be able to post while I'm gone. Hopefully by the time I get back the M's will have fired John McLaren.
Oh! I forgot to update you on softball. Even after I teased it before the season started. Shame on me. We're 2-0 after we won again tonight. First game was 9-2, today was 13-11. Ninjustice marches on.
See you in 10 days or so.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Assorteds
A couple thoughts kicking around:
The California Supreme Court's decision to strike down the ban on gay marriage gave people another chance to decry "activist judges." It has become rote at this point. An excellent shredding of the concept of "activism" is done by Dahlia Lithwick. Beyond judicial activism -- whatever that is -- the fact that the people of California can amend their constitution later this year to ban gay marriage again is more than a little odd. It's concerning that a bare minimum of voters can erase the effects of the state's Equal Protection Clause -- the very purpose of which is to protect minorities from majority oppression. The initiative system in California is just weird.
Hillary Clinton doesn't want my vote. That's the message I got this week when she said, "I still have a cushion if you look at all the states that I have won and take out those that may not be in our column come the fall. My opponent has 217 electoral votes from places like Alaska and Idaho and Utah and Kansas and Nebraska and many of his votes and his delegates come from caucus states, which have a relatively low turnout." So us Alaska Democrats shouldn't have our voice heard because no Democrat can win in the fall. Oh, I see. (But we should listen to the Democrats in West Virginia and Kentucky?) I think she's really underestimating what might happen in Alaska this year... if Obama is the nominee. Alaskan Democrats love Obama. The Republicans here hate McCain (he finished fourth in the caucus, behind Ron Paul), partly because he has voted against drilling in ANWR. Plus, there's a legit Libertarian candidate on the ballot, Bob Barr, who might take a lot of votes away. I think Alaska is a toss-up state, Obama has a real chance here.
There was real conflict today as I anticipated the results of the NBA Draft lottery. Do I root for the Sonics, hoping that they'll stay in Seattle and build a dynasty of young players? Or do I root against them, because if they move to OKC with Durant and a #1 draft pick, it will be even harder? I ended up rooting for them. I can't help it. I'm a sucker. (They'll pick fourth.)
The California Supreme Court's decision to strike down the ban on gay marriage gave people another chance to decry "activist judges." It has become rote at this point. An excellent shredding of the concept of "activism" is done by Dahlia Lithwick. Beyond judicial activism -- whatever that is -- the fact that the people of California can amend their constitution later this year to ban gay marriage again is more than a little odd. It's concerning that a bare minimum of voters can erase the effects of the state's Equal Protection Clause -- the very purpose of which is to protect minorities from majority oppression. The initiative system in California is just weird.
Hillary Clinton doesn't want my vote. That's the message I got this week when she said, "I still have a cushion if you look at all the states that I have won and take out those that may not be in our column come the fall. My opponent has 217 electoral votes from places like Alaska and Idaho and Utah and Kansas and Nebraska and many of his votes and his delegates come from caucus states, which have a relatively low turnout." So us Alaska Democrats shouldn't have our voice heard because no Democrat can win in the fall. Oh, I see. (But we should listen to the Democrats in West Virginia and Kentucky?) I think she's really underestimating what might happen in Alaska this year... if Obama is the nominee. Alaskan Democrats love Obama. The Republicans here hate McCain (he finished fourth in the caucus, behind Ron Paul), partly because he has voted against drilling in ANWR. Plus, there's a legit Libertarian candidate on the ballot, Bob Barr, who might take a lot of votes away. I think Alaska is a toss-up state, Obama has a real chance here.
There was real conflict today as I anticipated the results of the NBA Draft lottery. Do I root for the Sonics, hoping that they'll stay in Seattle and build a dynasty of young players? Or do I root against them, because if they move to OKC with Durant and a #1 draft pick, it will be even harder? I ended up rooting for them. I can't help it. I'm a sucker. (They'll pick fourth.)
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Moving mountains
I thought this was pretty funny. Bob Schaffer, a Republican running for the US Senate seat in Colorado, produces a TV ad where he boasts about his Colorado roots... except the mountain shown in the background is Denali. Whoops. Video of the ad is here.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Champs
Each week I play trivia at Humpy's, and yesterday was the last day of the season. My kickass team won the season championship, and now we are the proud owners of a Jagermeister tap machine. It's a dream come true.
We're first!
Alaska is the first state to average $4/gallon for gasoline. We were below the national average last year, so it's not like this is typically an expensive state. This is really weird. It's gone up a dollar -- 33% -- in one year.
Popular vote math
Oh, this is how they do it:
Four different scenarios of the total popular vote have been kicked around: (1) only counting primary contests without factoring in Florida and Michigan, whose contests were not sanctioned by the national party, (2) counting primary and caucus contests without Florida and Michigan, (3) counting primaries and contests and Florida but not Michigan, and (4) counting all primaries and caucuses including Florida and Michigan.
Clinton trails in all four counts, but by significantly different margins. In the first scenario she trails by by about 397,000, in the second she's behind 699,000, in the third she has a 405,000 vote deficit, and in the fourth scenario she trails by 77,000 votes.
The fourth scenario does not give Obama any votes out of Michigan, where he did not appear on the ballot.
The only scenario in which Clinton would appear to have the lead is a fifth scenario that only counts primary states – including both Florida and Michigan – and excludes any votes cast in the party’s caucuses. In that count, Clinton currently holds a lead of about 225,000 votes.
Okay then.
Monday, May 12, 2008
The myth of the popular vote
I have nothing against Hillary Clinton. I'm an Obama supporter, but I wouldn't complain if Hillary were the nominee. But there's one argument she keeps trotting out that just has to stop: the idea that she'll "win" the "popular vote" in the Democratic primary, and that such a victory is in any way significant.
It's not. It's meaningless. Here's why:
First, she counts Michigan and Florida. Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan, and in both states the voters were told that their votes would not count... predictably, many stayed home. It wasn't a real election; the numbers are unreliable.
Second, some states have primaries, some have caucuses. More total votes come out of a primary state than from a caucus state, even if the states have approximately the same populations. So about 4 times as many popular votes came out of primary state Missouri (aClinton narrow Obama state) than caucus state Minnesota (a landslide Obama state), even though their populations are roughly the same, and they produce the same number of delegates. Popular vote means nothing.
Third, some primaries are open to all voters, while others are closed to all but registered Democrats. Both candidates occasionally do well with Independents and cross-over Republicans, depending on the state, so the impact of closed/open primaries is unpredictable. But if you combine the numbers from an open primary with those from a closed primary, you get a sum that means... what exactly?
The "popular vote" idea is like emptying all the contents of your refrigerator into a big bowl and calling it a gourmet meal. Sure, it's food, but it won't taste very good, it won't be satisfying, and it might make you vomit. And yes, you can simply count up all the caucus and primary votes and end up with a big number, but that number won't mean anything unless you count the right way. Clinton wants this unrefined number of total votes to mean she's the most popular, but it doesn't. (We already have a number that represents popularity: delegates.) It's just a number, and if it means anything, it means she's desperate.
ADDED: Ugh. Apparently this "popular vote" argument is working on some -- right now at CNN.com a reader poll says 80% of people think popular vote should be more important than delegate count in deciding a party's nominee. Wow that's dumb. In the general election, yes, popular vote is symbolic of something real. In the primary? Not at all.
It's not. It's meaningless. Here's why:
First, she counts Michigan and Florida. Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan, and in both states the voters were told that their votes would not count... predictably, many stayed home. It wasn't a real election; the numbers are unreliable.
Second, some states have primaries, some have caucuses. More total votes come out of a primary state than from a caucus state, even if the states have approximately the same populations. So about 4 times as many popular votes came out of primary state Missouri (a
Third, some primaries are open to all voters, while others are closed to all but registered Democrats. Both candidates occasionally do well with Independents and cross-over Republicans, depending on the state, so the impact of closed/open primaries is unpredictable. But if you combine the numbers from an open primary with those from a closed primary, you get a sum that means... what exactly?
The "popular vote" idea is like emptying all the contents of your refrigerator into a big bowl and calling it a gourmet meal. Sure, it's food, but it won't taste very good, it won't be satisfying, and it might make you vomit. And yes, you can simply count up all the caucus and primary votes and end up with a big number, but that number won't mean anything unless you count the right way. Clinton wants this unrefined number of total votes to mean she's the most popular, but it doesn't. (We already have a number that represents popularity: delegates.) It's just a number, and if it means anything, it means she's desperate.
ADDED: Ugh. Apparently this "popular vote" argument is working on some -- right now at CNN.com a reader poll says 80% of people think popular vote should be more important than delegate count in deciding a party's nominee. Wow that's dumb. In the general election, yes, popular vote is symbolic of something real. In the primary? Not at all.
Corruption and barbers
People here are pretty used to hearing about state legislators being convicted and sentenced in corruption probes. So when former legislator Vic Kohring was sentenced last week to 3 1/2 years in prison, the talk amongst the people was not about his sentence, but instead about his incredibly bad hair.
Photo by Bill Roth, Anchorage Daily News.
No, that's not Captain Kangaroo.
Photo by Bill Roth, Anchorage Daily News.
No, that's not Captain Kangaroo.
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
A name worth knowing
Mildred Loving. She died Friday at the age of 68.
It's amazing to me that in some states just over 40 years ago it was illegal for a white man to marry a black woman; when the Lovings were charged with breaking Virginia's miscegenation law (the "Racial Integrity Act"), the Virginia judge said: "if God had meant for whites and blacks to mix, he would have not placed them on different continents." The law was struck down by the Supreme Court in Loving v. Virginia in 1967.
It's amazing to me that in some states just over 40 years ago it was illegal for a white man to marry a black woman; when the Lovings were charged with breaking Virginia's miscegenation law (the "Racial Integrity Act"), the Virginia judge said: "if God had meant for whites and blacks to mix, he would have not placed them on different continents." The law was struck down by the Supreme Court in Loving v. Virginia in 1967.
Friday, May 02, 2008
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